I believe that 2010 will be a year of opportunity and change. Because I believe the dollar will rise again (artificially because of false projections from the federal reserve) I also believe that it will end the year in a nose dive (after the elections). Since the power is mostly in one political party’s hands I believe they will keep the economy propped up by printing money to lessen their losses in the mid term elections. I base most of what I write here on these things. Also the strength of the American people to stand up much more than the powerful ever thought they would.

————————————
Predictions for 2010
————————————

1.Mid term elections for the Senate. Incumbents of all kinds will be amazed at how Americans will stand up against the same old politics. Both major parties take a hit with trust. The Republicans will gain 3 seats ,Independents or 3rd parties will have a surprise 2 seat gain. The Independents will then slow the national bleeding and demand real change before voting for more waste. They will also require time to read all bills and transparency .The real news is 3rd party candidates make it tougher in many elections for the 2 party system.

2,Mid term elections for Congress. Democrats take a bloodbath . Worse than anticipated. Some incumbents lose just because they are incumbents. Republicans take 7 seats. Also 3rd party wins much more than first thought. The real news again is 3rd party candidates make it tougher in many elections for the 2 party system.

3.The emergence of a stealth party. Its the name I have for Independents that will run as Republicans and Democrats so they have a better chance of winning. I see them as a power to be feared by old establishment thinkers. They will be the “NEW” party. They will force change.

4.Most commodities will skyrocket in price by year end, mostly at years end. Again there will be a blast of dollar printing so that Americans feel as much pain. Soy beans, corn ,and other Agra products with go up steady all year. Oil is one that I can’t call. It may be about the same because of demand.

5.Interest rates will rise considerably near the end of the year. This will be done to stabilize the dollar. It will be too late of course. In 2011 I see the dollar free falling. But I’m getting 12 months ahead of myself.

——————————————————————————————————-
Industries that will be dropping off the edge of the Earth
——————————————————————————————————-
1.Trucking. I see this because there will be less goods being sold in 2010. Less goods sold means less transported. The entire transportation industry will take a hit. Trucking will get hit worse than rail,sea, or air.

2.Commercial property will go belly up. It is already happening and for me to even mention it doesn’t really seem like a prediction as much as an observation. Companies will start piggy backing. This means that companies that do not compete will staff and space share. This saves up to 40% of fixed costs for both companies. Many companies have laid off enough to have the space for another company to move in already. Perhaps even companies that can complement each other by sharing clients. It just makes sense.

3.Any and all paper media will be all but done. Some will try to charge to view their online sites. This will fail. By the end of the year I predict they will have to rethink this direction. News and media on television will experience this too. Not because less people are watching TV but because less people trust the news media. This will be a problem on a lot of levels. The truth is on the internet and some are doing it at a level of excellence never seen before.There are 6 huge companies that own 97% of news sources in the US. They have tons of money , influence,and power. They want to keep all 3.

4.Unions. The employee unions are not needed anymore. Most of their members are members because they have to be not because they want to be. Unions have followed political policies that have cost members thousands of jobs. These members are waking up.

5.Banks. A consolidation in the banking industry is a foregone conclusion. So far the little community banks have been allowed to fail and then quickly taken over by big ones. The mega banks will be in more trouble than ever this year. The American people will not stand for their representatives to keep bailing them out. The term “to big to fail” will be synonymous with racial slurs by year end.

6.There is another housing bubble right now. If you count the houses that are empty and not for sale and the houses that should be foreclosed on but aren’t because Fannie & Freddie own the loans then we have 3 times more housing inventory than is made public. That means you count how many empty houses are for sale and hit X 3 =. Its a scary picture.

7.Debtor countries. These are countries that owe America debt. I see them defaulting on the US first because they know we will allow it.

8.Schools ,Universities in general. They have so far just been raising their prices. That cannot last very long. I see many universities getting smaller or cutting way back. The ones that work best with the federal grants programs will do best. I’d say the smaller community schools.

——————————————————————————————————-
Opportunities for 2010
——————————————————————————————————-
“Where there is chaos there is opportunity”

We sure do have chaos. So opportunity is around too, and it is knocking. There are many grants given to schools to re educate your selves. I am personally going to get certified in Computer Science Courses .This will hold my interest for a while and make me better at what I do. 

1.When the housing bubble reappears and housing takes the hit it should have been allowed to in 2006 the market will be shattered. That I believe will be the end of 2010 and early 2011. If you have money then making it will be a snap. Town homes will be cheap. They’re over built and undersold. I see the ones that were 160-180k in 2006 being under $30,000.00. These will be great off campus dorms for the smaller schools. Be picky. There are more new ones than anything else and the banks are watching them get vandalized and fall apart. They will be cheap and great portfolio pieces.

2.Borrowing for small businesses. This will come as a surprise to some. The president has no choice but to force banks to lend to small businesses at very low rates and lending to the companies without the owner even on the loan. This because 65% of jobs are by small businesses and small businesses are broke. Any small business without bad credit will be able to borrow at low rates. This may only last 6-9 months because of the amount of fraud and defaults that will happen. Or at least that is the two reasons I see. I expect this by February 2010. This will help the jobs situation more than anything they have done or can do.

3.Walking away from debt. This awful time will create an alternate way of lending. They say “necessity is the mother of invention” and it is so true. People that walk away from credit card debt ,buried housing loans ,etc will be able to borrow again by 2011. Why ? Because banks make money by lending money. Over half of Americans will have something on their credit by the end of the year that they are not proud of. If American banks won’t lend to these consumers then foreign banks will. This of course will cause local banks to find a way to make attractive loans to US citizens. Greed works both ways you know.

4.Living on less. At the end of this mess Americans will know how to live on less. For example at my home. We have cut back about 70% from 2006. Its amazing !. This will lead to us saving more ,investing wisely ,and teach another generation how to live on what they earn. Overall I see this as a real game changer for America’s future.

5.Turning America’s productive capacity around. We have become addicted to cheap goods produced overseas. As a nation we cannot survive by doing this any longer. I believe small businesses all over the country will see an opportunity here. Grant it there will be about a 95% minimum wage job growth but this will fill a void in our country. The void is jobs. If you have 100 minimum wage earners they will have to be managed , the production will have to be planned , goods transported ,advertised ,and sold. Its a chain reaction. This will be one of the main things that will restart this country.
———————————————————————————————-
Predicted Trends
———————————————————————————————-
1.A stimulus bounce. That’s an appearance of the economy getting better because of the amount of cash pushed into the economy.

2.A return to buying quality not just cheap goods.

3.Gold shortage. Gold Futures are oversold and it will become a major problem.

4.The internet will come under fire. They will try to have controls put on it by scaring the US people in some way. I hope it doesn’t work.

5.This isn’t new , there will be “fees” put on goods and services but they will not be called taxes even though they are.

6.Terrorism on local soft targets go up. Our foreign policies will guarantee this.

7.Anti-immigration movement will be a centerpiece of the 3rd party movement.

8.Jobless inventors will be the front line for bringing something huge to our nation. Something as big as the internet. These will be geeks that are bored. This will help ignite a surge of IPO’s and production again. This is what Americans do when their backs are against the wall. “ Yankee ingenuity ” 

9.Possible bank holiday.If banks get into trouble the government can and may declare a bank holiday. The banks close for a week ,the dollar is devalued 10-15% during that week, the banks reopen and the American people just had 12-15% of their money stolen but they won’t figure it out because they still have the same amount of dollars. They did this during the Great Depression. They may do it again.

10.In 2010, survivalism will go mainstream. People will learn to take care of themselves ,gardens ,weapons ,etc.

11.Buy American will be heard again loudly.

12.The American people will show anger towards their leaders like has never been seen before.

13.A new news network not controlled by the other big network of news media.

These are just a few of my thoughts. Yes just my two cents. I am amazed at the American Spirit. I am optimistic about our future. It does look like 2010 & 2011 will be tough but we are tougher. As always if you have any questions or answers feel free to email me at ken@kenstepp.com